Market
What will be the outcome for TikTok's U.S. operations by end of 2025?
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Mike Johnson•United States•TikTok•Chinese•ByteDance•Johnson•Chinese Communist Party•Donald Trump•Congress•Supreme Court•First Amendment•Trump•Save TikTok
Resolution / Starting Odds
ByteDance sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
TikTok remains shut down in the U.S. • 25%
TikTok resumes operations under new ownership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance or relevant government agencies
Story
Mike Johnson: U.S. to Enforce TikTok Ban Law After Supreme Court Ruling, TikTok Shuts Down in U.S.
Jan 19, 2025, 06:49 PM
House Speaker Mike Johnson has announced that the United States will enforce the law requiring TikTok, owned by Chinese company ByteDance, to either fully divest from its U.S. operations or face a ban. Johnson emphasized that the law mandates a complete divestiture from the Chinese Communist Party, rejecting proposals for partial sales, such as the 50% divestiture suggested by President Donald Trump. The TikTok ban law, passed by Congress last year, was upheld by the Supreme Court earlier this month, which had set a 270-day timeline for compliance. ByteDance had challenged the law, arguing it violated the First Amendment, but the court ruled unanimously in favor of the ban, citing national security concerns. TikTok voluntarily shut down its platform in the U.S. on January 19, just before the law took effect. Johnson also addressed Trump's recent 'Save TikTok' post and plans for an executive order to extend the compliance timeline, stating that the enforcement of this law is critical to addressing data privacy and security risks posed by the Chinese Communist Party.
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Similar markets
Continues with ByteDance • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Acquired by a US company • 25%
Ceases US operations • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Ban lifted with no sale or government ownership • 25%
Extension granted for divestment • 25%
ByteDance divests and TikTok continues operations • 25%
TikTok is banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Continues without change • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Other • 25%
TikTok sold to US company • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
TikTok operates with restrictions • 25%
TikTok operates without changes • 25%
TikTok sold and operates under new ownership • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Resumes Operations • 25%
Continues Ban • 25%
Partial Operations • 25%
Other • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Sold to Non-US Company • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Remains with ByteDance • 25%
Sold to US Company • 25%