Market
What will be TikTok's operational status in the U.S. by the end of February 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Continues operation without interruption • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
New ownership announced • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government and news reports from major outlets
Story
Biden Won't Enforce TikTok Ban Set for Sunday, Leaves Decision to Trump
Jan 16, 2025, 09:59 PM
The Biden administration has announced it does not plan to enforce the TikTok ban scheduled to take effect on Sunday, January 19th, which would force TikTok to go dark for U.S. users. According to an administration official speaking to ABC News, the administration will leave the decision regarding the enforcement of the ban to the incoming Trump administration. "Our position on this has been clear: TikTok should continue to operate under American ownership," the official said. The Biden administration will not enforce the ban during the final 36 hours of President Biden's term if it goes into effect. Any further action regarding enforcement will be up to President-elect Trump and his team. The ban is set to go into effect over the holiday weekend, but the Biden administration effectively leaves its implementation to the next administration.
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TikTok banned • 25%
Operational under new ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Operational without restrictions • 25%
TikTok sold and operates under new ownership • 25%
TikTok operates without changes • 25%
TikTok operates with restrictions • 25%
Resumes Operations • 25%
Continues Ban • 25%
Partial Operations • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 33%
Permanently shut down • 33%
Continues operations • 33%
TikTok divested to a U.S. company • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other status • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
TikTok resumes operations • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation without restrictions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues operation with restrictions • 25%
Shuts down on January 19 • 25%
Resumes operations • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Granted Extension • 25%
Sold to U.S. Entity • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Operations continue as is • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceases US operations • 25%
Continues with ByteDance • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Acquired by a US company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Divested • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
TikTok banned in the US • 25%
TikTok available with ByteDance divestment • 25%
TikTok remains available without changes • 25%
Sold to a U.S. company • 25%
Partially owned by the U.S. • 25%
Remains unchanged • 25%
Banned again • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%
Resumes normal operations • 25%
Operations banned • 25%
U.S. government ownership • 25%
Sold to U.S. buyer • 25%