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What will be the status of the Gaza conflict by January 20, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Reports from international organizations and credible news outlets
Story
Israel Defense Minister Orders IDF to Prepare Plan for Complete Defeat of Hamas by January 20, 2025
Jan 10, 2025, 09:02 AM
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has instructed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare a plan for the complete defeat of Hamas in Gaza. This directive comes with a deadline tied to the potential realization of a hostage deal. Katz stated that if a deal is not reached before President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, 2025, Hamas must face total defeat. He emphasized the need to avoid a prolonged and costly war of attrition, highlighting the urgency of the situation.
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Ongoing conflict • 25%
Ceasefire in effect • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Renewed negotiations • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
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Ceasefire holds • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
Mutual violation • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Escalation • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Lasting peace agreement • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Neither • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%