Market
Status of Gaza conflict by December 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire in effect • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Renewed negotiations • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Reports from credible international news agencies and humanitarian organizations.
Story
Hamas Resumes Indirect Ceasefire Talks in Doha, Vows Seriousness to Reach Agreement
Jan 3, 2025, 05:45 PM
On Friday, Hamas announced that indirect ceasefire negotiations with Israel have resumed in Doha, Qatar. Following a visit to Cairo, Egypt, where the Hamas delegation discussed challenges surrounding a Gaza ceasefire agreement with Egyptian, Qatari, and Turkish mediators, the group is now engaging in talks with Qatari mediators. Senior Hamas officials, including spokesperson Jihad Taha and Basem Naim, confirmed the resumption of talks, stating, "We confirm our seriousness and our quest to reach an agreement." The current round of negotiations aims to achieve a complete ceasefire, ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, and facilitate the return of displaced residents. The death toll in Gaza has exceeded 45,600 amid the ongoing conflict.
View original story
Similar markets
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Palestinian factions • 25%
Mutual violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire partially violated • 25%
Ceasefire remains intact • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflicts • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor conflicts • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fully violated • 25%
New peace agreement reached • 25%
Hamas remains in control • 25%
Joint control with international oversight • 25%
Control shifts to Palestinian Authority • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%