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What will be the status of Netanyahu's war goals by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
All goals achieved • 25%
Some goals achieved • 25%
No goals achieved • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or credible news reports
Story
Netanyahu: Gaza Ceasefire Temporary, Israel to Free 33 Hostages for 737 Prisoners
Jan 18, 2025, 06:36 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the ceasefire in Gaza, set to begin on Sunday, is temporary and that Israel retains the right to resume hostilities with U.S. support if necessary. Netanyahu emphasized that both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have given Israel full backing to return to fighting if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire prove futile. He promised to meet all war goals, including the return of all hostages held in Gaza. The first phase of the ceasefire, lasting six weeks, will see the release of 33 hostages in exchange for 737 Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu also mentioned that Trump has committed to lifting all remaining restrictions on U.S. munitions, enabling Israel to resume the war with significant force if needed.
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Stalemate with no clear victor • 25%
Significant setbacks for Israel • 25%
Partial victory with ongoing conflicts • 25%
No significant military action taken • 25%
Complete defeat of Hamas • 25%
Partial defeat with ongoing conflict • 25%
Hostage deal reached, no military action • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
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Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased Houthi retaliation • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Houthi targets significantly weakened • 25%
Significant reduction in Houthi attacks • 25%
Increase in Houthi attacks • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
No change in Houthi activity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Complete disarmament of Hezbollah • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant disarmament • 25%
Partial disarmament • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
No significant outcomes • 25%
Other significant outcomes • 25%
Apprehension of attackers • 25%
Strengthens Netanyahu's political standing • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Weakens Netanyahu's political standing • 25%
Successful retaliation • 25%
No retaliation • 25%
Failed retaliation • 25%
Retaliation postponed • 25%
Decisive Israeli victory • 25%
Peace negotiations initiated • 25%
Houthi resistance strengthens • 25%
Stalemate • 25%