Market
What will be the outcome of the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire negotiations by February 29, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the Israeli government or major news outlets
Story
Netanyahu: Gaza Ceasefire Temporary, Israel to Free 33 Hostages for 737 Prisoners
Jan 18, 2025, 06:36 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stated that the ceasefire in Gaza, set to begin on Sunday, is temporary and that Israel retains the right to resume hostilities with U.S. support if necessary. Netanyahu emphasized that both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have given Israel full backing to return to fighting if negotiations for the second phase of the ceasefire prove futile. He promised to meet all war goals, including the return of all hostages held in Gaza. The first phase of the ceasefire, lasting six weeks, will see the release of 33 hostages in exchange for 737 Palestinian prisoners. Netanyahu also mentioned that Trump has committed to lifting all remaining restrictions on U.S. munitions, enabling Israel to resume the war with significant force if needed.
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Temporary extension of current ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Hamas remains, war continues • 25%
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Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
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No ceasefire agreement • 25%
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Agreement not approved • 25%
Agreement approved but not implemented • 25%
Agreement approved and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Ceasefire agreement finalized • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire agreement collapsed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement delayed • 25%
Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation resumes • 25%
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Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%