Market
How will Iran respond to U.S. policy changes under the Trump administration by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Increased military posturing • 25%
Withdrawal from previous agreements • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or news reports
Story
Iran's Pezeshkian Denies Trump Assassination Plot in NBC Interview, Open to Talks if U.S. Keeps Promises
Jan 15, 2025, 08:09 AM
In an interview with NBC News anchor Lester Holt, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian denied allegations that Iran plotted to assassinate U.S. President-elect Donald Trump during last year's election campaign. He stated that Iran "never" attempted such actions and "never will." Pezeshkian called the accusations a scheme by Israel and other nations to promote hostility towards Iran. He also emphasized that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and warned Trump against risking war, asserting that Iran is not afraid of conflict but hopes for peace. Pezeshkian expressed readiness to engage in talks with the incoming Trump administration if the U.S. demonstrates commitment to its promises, saying, "If Trump proves he will keep his word, we will engage in talks."
View original story
Similar markets
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Complete policy overhaul • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Widespread condemnation • 25%
General support • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Crackdown on protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Reforms announced • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Severed diplomatic ties • 25%
No change • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase military drills • 25%
Diplomatic Engagement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Informational Campaigns • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
Declines proposal • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
Requests modifications • 25%
Accepts and begins negotiations • 25%