Market
What will be the resolution of TikTok's U.S. operations by Jan 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, U.S. government, or acquiring company
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Pause TikTok Ban Law Until Jan. 20 Inauguration for Political Resolution
Dec 27, 2024, 10:13 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to pause a law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, that would ban the TikTok social media platform on Jan. 19, unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. Trump's request comes in an amicus brief filed with the court, where he argues for time to pursue a political resolution to the dispute after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10. The law was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. Trump's filing does not address the constitutionality of the law but emphasizes his ability to negotiate a solution.
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Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is lifted following sale • 25%
Ban is lifted without sale • 25%
Ban is indefinitely postponed • 25%
Ban • 25%
No change • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Sale • 25%
International ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
U.S. majority ownership • 25%
No U.S. ownership • 25%
Other • 25%
U.S. minority ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Acquired by U.S. company • 25%
Government stake • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Court decision • 25%
Ownership Changes to Project Liberty • 25%
Ownership Structure is Dissolved • 25%
Ownership Changes to Another Entity • 25%
Ownership Remains Unchanged • 25%