Market
How will TikTok's operation in the US be resolved by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Court decision • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
Official announcements or legal documents from TikTok, ByteDance, or U.S. government bodies
Story
Biden Leaves TikTok Ban Decision to Trump, Set for Jan. 19
Jan 17, 2025, 08:06 AM
President Joe Biden will not enforce a ban on the social media app TikTok that is set to take effect a day before he leaves office on Monday, a U.S. official said. The decision leaves the app's fate in the hands of President-elect Donald Trump. Congress last year required that TikTok's China-based parent company ByteDance divest the company by Jan. 19, a day before the presidential inauguration. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal Biden administration thinking. Trump, who once sought to ban the app, has since pledged to keep it available in the U.S., though his transition team has not detailed how they intend to accomplish this.
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Other resolution • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Sale • 25%
Ban • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Operating under ByteDance • 25%
Sold and operating • 25%
Banned and shut down • 25%
Operating under temporary extension • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Operational without change • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Supreme Court ruling • 25%
Political negotiation • 25%
Other • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
