Market
What will be the resolution for TikTok's operation in the U.S. by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban is lifted following sale • 25%
Ban is lifted without sale • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is indefinitely postponed • 25%
Official government releases or credible media reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Citing National Security, Unless ByteDance Sells
Jan 17, 2025, 03:40 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law that will ban TikTok starting Sunday unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The court ruled that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China outweigh potential limitations on free speech for the app's 170 million U.S. users. The decision comes as President-elect Donald Trump has expressed intentions to negotiate a solution, while the Biden administration has indicated it will not enforce the ban on its last day in office. The law, passed with bipartisan support, aims to address concerns over data collection practices and the potential for Chinese government influence on the platform. Without a sale, new users will be unable to download TikTok, and existing users will not receive updates, eventually rendering the app unusable.
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Other resolution • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Banned by U.S. government • 25%
Sold to U.S. company • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Retained by ByteDance • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Ownership Changes to Project Liberty • 25%
Ownership Changes to Another Entity • 25%
Ownership Structure is Dissolved • 25%
Ownership Remains Unchanged • 25%
Acquired by U.S. company • 25%
Government stake • 25%
Banned • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Unrestricted operations • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Acquired by U.S. entity • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
International ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
Remains banned • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Operations resumed under ByteDance • 25%
Ban • 25%
No change • 25%
Sale • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
Court decision • 25%