Market
How will TikTok's U.S. operations be resolved by Jan 20, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban • 25%
Sale • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Official announcements from ByteDance, U.S. government, or Supreme Court.
Story
U.S. DOJ Urges Supreme Court to Reject Trump's Request to Delay TikTok Ban by Jan. 19
Jan 4, 2025, 03:06 PM
The U.S. Department of Justice has urged the Supreme Court to reject President-elect Donald Trump's request to delay the implementation of a law that would ban TikTok in the U.S. or force its sale by its Chinese parent company ByteDance by Jan. 19. The law, which requires ByteDance to divest from TikTok's U.S. assets or face a ban, has been contested by TikTok on free speech grounds, arguing that it could infringe on the First Amendment rights of its 170 million U.S. users. Trump, who previously attempted to ban TikTok during his first term citing national security risks, now supports the platform and has asked the Supreme Court to pause the ban to allow his incoming administration time to seek a negotiated resolution. The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10.
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Other resolution • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No resolution • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Court decision • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Shut down • 25%
Sold to a US company • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues without changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Banned in the US • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk's X • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Supreme Court delays or overturns the ban • 25%
TikTok sold to an approved buyer • 25%
Supreme Court upholds ban and TikTok shuts down • 25%
Sold to Elon Musk • 25%
Sold to another U.S. entity • 25%
Not sold, ban overturned • 25%
Operations banned in the U.S. • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Permanently banned • 25%
Operational with restrictions • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Operational without change • 25%
Acquired by another entity • 25%
Continues operations without change • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Acquired by Elon Musk • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
International ownership • 25%