Market
Resolution of TikTok's status in the U.S. by end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Acquired by U.S. company • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Banned • 25%
Government stake • 25%
Official announcements from TikTok or the U.S. government, verified by major news outlets
Story
Trump Delays TikTok Ban for 75 Days, Suggests U.S. Take 50% Stake
Jan 21, 2025, 01:39 AM
President Donald Trump has signed an executive order delaying the enforcement of the TikTok ban for 75 days, granting the company additional time to find a U.S. buyer or address national security concerns. The order instructs the Department of Justice to refrain from taking any action against TikTok during this period and to issue letters to providers stating there has been no violation and there is no liability for any conduct. Trump suggested that the United States could take a 50% stake in TikTok's U.S. operations.
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Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Acquired by US company • 25%
Continues with conditions • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Operations unaffected • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Ban is lifted following sale • 25%
Ban is indefinitely postponed • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is lifted without sale • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
90-day extension granted • 25%
Deal finalized • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other • 25%
Ban • 25%
No change • 25%
Sale • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
International ownership • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
Other political resolution • 25%
Legislative amendment to existing law • 25%
No deal, ban enforced • 25%
Negotiated deal with Trump administration • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete Ban • 25%
Partial Restrictions • 25%
Unrestricted Operation • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Legal resolution favoring US government • 25%
Legal resolution favoring TikTok • 25%
Economic interests • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
National security concerns • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%