Market
What will be the political resolution for TikTok's U.S. operations by Feb 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Negotiated deal with Trump administration • 25%
No deal, ban enforced • 25%
Legislative amendment to existing law • 25%
Other political resolution • 25%
Official announcements from U.S. government or ByteDance
Story
Trump Urges Supreme Court to Pause TikTok Ban Law Until Jan. 20 Inauguration for Political Resolution
Dec 27, 2024, 10:13 PM
President-elect Donald Trump has urged the U.S. Supreme Court to pause a law, the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, that would ban the TikTok social media platform on Jan. 19, unless it is sold by its Chinese parent company, ByteDance. Trump's request comes in an amicus brief filed with the court, where he argues for time to pursue a political resolution to the dispute after his inauguration on Jan. 20. The Supreme Court is scheduled to hear arguments on the case on Jan. 10. The law was passed by Congress and signed by President Joe Biden, requiring ByteDance to divest TikTok or face a ban in the U.S. Trump's filing does not address the constitutionality of the law but emphasizes his ability to negotiate a solution.
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Negotiated settlement • 25%
No change • 25%
Sale • 25%
Ban • 25%
International ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
Court decision • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
No resolution • 33%
Ongoing negotiations • 34%
Resolution reached • 33%
Ban is lifted following sale • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is indefinitely postponed • 25%
Ban is lifted without sale • 25%
No resolution • 25%
Supreme Court decision • 25%
Political resolution by Trump • 25%
ByteDance divestment • 25%
Sale to U.S. company • 25%
Government ownership • 25%
Continued ban • 25%
Ban lifted with no changes • 25%
Acquired by U.S. company • 25%
Banned • 25%
Government stake • 25%
Operates independently • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
No resolution • 25%
TikTok banned • 25%
ByteDance sells TikTok • 25%
Supreme Court blocks ban • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Acquired by non-American company • 25%
Acquired by American company • 25%
Not acquired • 25%
No acquisition • 25%