Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. efforts to end the Gaza conflict by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or involved parties
Story
Blinken Reveals U.S. Efforts with Arab Partners to End Gaza Conflict via Ceasefire and Aid
Jan 5, 2025, 03:44 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview with The New York Times, revealed that the U.S. had been working on a post-war plan for Gaza with Arab partners. Blinken highlighted the suffering in Gaza as a driving force behind U.S. efforts to end the conflict through the recovery of hostages and achieving a ceasefire. He also noted that the U.S. had been pushing for months on a plan for the day after the war in Gaza, in collaboration with many countries, particularly Arab partners. Blinken mentioned that the U.S. believed the quickest way to end the conflict in Gaza was through a ceasefire agreement. Additionally, he acknowledged periods where the U.S. felt Israel was not doing enough to facilitate humanitarian aid into Gaza, leading to U.S. pressure on Israel to take action.
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Similar markets
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Short-term ceasefire • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Long-term ceasefire • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Partial Israeli control • 25%
Full Israeli control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Return to pre-October 7 status quo • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Hostage deal only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
No implementation • 25%