Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts on the Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official government announcements and international news coverage
Story
President-elect Trump Threatens to Reclaim Panama Canal Over China's Influence and Overcharges
Dec 22, 2024, 12:10 AM
President-elect Donald Trump announced that he may demand the return of the Panama Canal to the United States. Citing concerns over Panama overcharging U.S. ships and the risk of the canal falling into the 'wrong hands', Trump declared, 'We will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to the US.' He emphasized the canal's importance to U.S. commerce and national security, referencing China's growing influence in the region since the U.S. transferred control to Panama in 2000. He also alluded to the decision made under President Jimmy Carter to relinquish control of the canal.
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Panama rejects • 25%
US withdraws proposal • 25%
Panama agrees • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Shared control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Successful reacquisition • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Successful negotiation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
No Action • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Fee reduction agreement • 25%
No change • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
No significant action • 25%