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What will be U.S. actions regarding Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Military Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
No Action • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or international diplomatic reports
Story
Trump Won't Rule Out Military Force to Gain Greenland, Panama Canal; Cites China's Influence
Jan 7, 2025, 05:35 PM
President-elect Donald Trump on Tuesday declined to rule out the use of military force or economic coercion to gain control of Greenland and the Panama Canal, emphasizing their importance to U.S. economic and national security. When asked by a reporter whether he could assure the world that he would not use military or economic means to assert control over these areas, Trump responded, "No, I can't assure you on either of those two." He added, "We need them for economic security... It might be that you'll have to do something." Trump expressed concerns about China's influence over the Panama Canal, stating, "The Panama Canal is vital to our country. It's being operated by China. China!" He reaffirmed his ambition to expand America's global footprint, suggesting that military action might be necessary.
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No significant action • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Renegotiation of treaty • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Shared control agreement • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Rejection • 25%
Negotiation • 25%
Other diplomatic action • 25%
No official response • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Consider military action • 25%
Seek negotiations • 25%
Maintain current status • 25%
Other • 25%
Panama rejects • 25%
Panama agrees • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
US withdraws proposal • 25%
Successful reacquisition • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%