Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. efforts regarding Panama Canal by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
U.S. regains control • 25%
Shared control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Department of State, Panamanian government, or credible news sources
Story
Trump Vows to 'Take Back' Panama Canal from China, Calling It a 'Foolish Gift'
Jan 20, 2025, 05:35 PM
During his inauguration speech on January 20, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that the United States will "take back" the Panama Canal, marking a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy. Trump claimed that China is operating the canal and that American ships are being overcharged for its use. He stated, "We didn't give it to China; we gave it to Panama, and we're taking it back." Describing the transfer as a "foolish gift that should never have been made," Trump asserted that the U.S. has been "treated very badly" in this matter. He proclaimed, "The golden age of America begins right now," signaling his intent to restore U.S. control over the strategic waterway.
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Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No Action • 25%
Economic Coercion • 25%
Military Action • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Panama agrees • 25%
Panama rejects • 25%
US withdraws proposal • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
No significant change • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Panama retains control • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful reacquisition • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Impose economic sanctions • 25%
Reclaim control • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase military presence • 25%
Other diplomatic resolution • 25%
U.S. gains control • 25%
Fee reduction agreement • 25%
No change • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful negotiation • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increase tariffs on Panama • 25%
Demand return of the canal • 25%
Negotiate lower fees • 25%