Market
What will be the final outcome of the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas before January 20, 2025?
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Joe Biden•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Gaza•Biden•Netanyahu•Doha•Mossad•David Barnea•United States•Egypt•Qatar•Mideast•Brett McGurk•Jake Sullivan•Hamas•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Full Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Partial Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official statements and international news coverage
Story
Biden and Netanyahu Discuss Phased Ceasefire and Hostage Release in Gaza Before Biden's Term Ends
Jan 12, 2025, 10:30 PM
U.S. President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday to discuss ongoing efforts to reach a ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza. The discussions are part of a broader push to finalize an agreement before Biden's term ends on January 20. Netanyahu updated Biden on the progress of negotiations and the mandate given to the Israeli security delegation in Doha, led by Mossad chief David Barnea, to advance a hostage deal. The talks, mediated by the United States, Egypt, and Qatar, have seen involvement from Biden's top Mideast adviser, Brett McGurk, and have been described as 'very, very close' by Biden's national security adviser, Jake Sullivan. Under discussion is a phased ceasefire, with Netanyahu signaling commitment only to the first phase, which involves a partial hostage release in exchange for a temporary halt in fighting. Hamas has demanded a full Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza, while Netanyahu insists on destroying Hamas' military capabilities. The conflict has resulted in over 46,000 Palestinian deaths, mostly women and children, following Hamas' attack on October 7, 2023, which killed about 1,200 people and led to the abduction of around 250 hostages. Families of the approximately 100 hostages still held in Gaza are pressing for a deal to bring their loved ones home.
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Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Temporary truce without formal agreement • 25%
Ceasefire with terms agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
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Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
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Ceasefire agreement reached and implemented • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached but not implemented • 25%
Agreement not approved • 25%
Negotiations continue beyond deadline • 25%
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No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed, no hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire agreed and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
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Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
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Resumption of conflict • 25%
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Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Successful long-term peace • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
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Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
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Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
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Ceasefire extended • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%