Market
What will be the outcome of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire and exchange deal by end of February 2025?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yahya Sinwar's body returned • 25%
Information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed received • 25%
Hadar Goldin's body returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Official statements from both Hamas and Israeli governments, or credible news sources
Story
Hamas Demands Yahya Sinwar's Body in First Phase of Ceasefire and Hostage-Prisoner Exchange Deal with Israel
Jan 13, 2025, 08:15 PM
Hamas has reportedly demanded the body of Yahya Sinwar as part of the first phase of a ceasefire and hostage-prisoner exchange deal with Israel, according to Saudi media outlets Al Arabiya and Al-Hadath. In response, Israel has requested information on Avera Mengistu and Hisham al-Sayed, who have been held in Gaza for over a decade, and the return of Hadar Goldin's body. Israel is expected to receive a response on these matters before the end of the week. Additionally, Israel has asked for the deportation of some prisoners for at least five years and has agreed to immediate improvements in the conditions of Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
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Successful long-term peace • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Complete breakdown of ceasefire • 25%
Temporary peace with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Ceasefire rejected • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Ceasefire extended with new terms • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down • 25%
Ceasefire holds but no further talks • 25%
Ceasefire holds and leads to peace talks • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, minor skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire holds, no major conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken, major conflict resumes • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%