Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal by the end of 2025?
2
Mike Waltz•Donald Trump•National Security•Trump•Gaza•Waltz•American•Israeli•Washington•Hamas•United States•Israel•CBS News•CNN•Egypt•Qatar
Resolution / Starting Odds
Deal fully implemented • 25%
Deal partially implemented • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Reports from international organizations or credible news agencies
Story
Trump's National Security Advisor Vows Gaza Hostage Deal Implementation, U.S. Support for Israel if Hamas Reneges
Jan 19, 2025, 01:41 PM
Mike Waltz, President-elect Donald Trump's incoming National Security Advisor, has emphasized that the Trump administration is committed to ensuring the full implementation of all phases of the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal. Waltz conveyed this commitment during a meeting with American and Israeli hostage families in Washington. He expressed relief that three brave women are no longer suffering at the hands of Hamas terrorists in the tunnels below Gaza and are reunited with their families. Additionally, Waltz stated that if Hamas reneges on the agreement, the United States will support Israel in taking necessary actions. He also asserted that Hamas will never govern Gaza again, a position he reiterated in interviews with CBS News and CNN. This stance comes as the ceasefire agreement, mediated by Egypt, Qatar, and the U.S., went into effect on Sunday.
View original story
Similar markets
Other outcome • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Complete success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Hostages released • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No agreement reached • 33%
Exchange delayed beyond timeframe • 25%
Successful exchange, all hostages released • 25%
Partial exchange, some hostages released • 25%
Failed exchange, no hostages released • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Full implementation • 25%
Agreement abandoned • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%