Market
What will be the outcome of the Gaza hostage negotiation by May 31, 2025?
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Bezalel Smotrich•Gaza conflict•State of Israel•Smotrich•Israel•Gaza Strip•Hamas•Knesset Finance Committee
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hostage deal reached • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released without a formal deal • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or reputable news agencies
Story
Israeli Finance Minister Smotrich Opposes Gaza Hostage Deal, Citing National Security Risks
Jan 13, 2025, 09:28 AM
Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has strongly criticized an emerging hostage deal related to the Gaza conflict, describing it as a 'catastrophe for the national security of the State of Israel.' Smotrich, a key figure in the ruling coalition, has stated that he will not support any agreement that halts the war, releases terrorists, and leads to the cessation of hostilities. He advocates for a more aggressive approach, suggesting that Israel should continue with full force to occupy the entire Gaza Strip, control humanitarian aid, and push for the complete surrender of Hamas. This stance has led to confrontations with families of hostages, who have expressed their opposition to Smotrich's position during a Knesset Finance Committee meeting.
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Hostages released • 33%
No agreement reached • 33%
Partial release of hostages • 34%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostage death toll increases • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
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No progress in negotiations • 25%
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All hostages released • 25%
Hostage situation unresolved • 25%
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Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
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Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
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Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
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Hostage Release without Ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire with Hostage Release • 25%
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Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
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