Market
What will be the outcome of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage deal by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire and hostage release successful • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither successful • 25%
Official announcements from Israeli and Hamas authorities or credible news reports
Story
Israel and Hamas Agree to Ceasefire and Hostage Deal Ahead of Trump Inauguration
Jan 14, 2025, 07:29 PM
Israel and Hamas have agreed in principle to a draft ceasefire and hostage release deal in Gaza, as reported by CBS News citing U.S., Arab, and Israeli officials. The agreement, coming ahead of President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, is expected to be finalized this week if all goes well. It would involve the release of hostages held by Hamas and a cessation of hostilities in the Gaza Strip. The parties are reportedly preparing public statements regarding the deal.
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Complete success • 25%
Partial success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Indeterminate • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Approved and implemented • 25%
Approved but not implemented • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Agreement Approved but Not Implemented • 25%
Agreement Rejected • 25%
Negotiations Ongoing • 25%
Agreement Approved and Implemented • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Fully implemented • 25%
Partially implemented • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Deal fully implemented • 25%
Deal partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
New terms negotiated • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Partial implementation • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Ceasefire collapses entirely • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
No implementation • 25%
Ceasefire breaks with major violations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial ceasefire with phased agreements • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire and hostages release agreed • 25%
Ceasefire only agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Deal fully executed • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Deal collapsed • 25%
Partial execution • 25%
Hostages successfully rescued • 25%
Hostages harmed or neutralized • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages remain in captivity • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Ceasefire ends with renewed conflict • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire ends without major incidents • 25%