Market
How will oil prices change within one month following a military strike against Iran in 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase by over 20% • 25%
Increase by 10-20% • 25%
Increase by less than 10% • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Oil price indices such as Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate
Story
After November Meeting, Israeli Minister Ron Dermer Believes Trump Will Support Military Action Against Iran's Nuclear Facilities
Jan 6, 2025, 03:09 PM
Following a meeting in November, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer reportedly concluded that U.S. President Donald Trump is likely to support or even initiate a military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities. This assessment, based on information from Axios and two unnamed sources, suggests that Trump may back an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) operation or order a U.S. strike. Dermer's impressions were shaped by discussions held at Mar-a-Lago, where the potential for military action against Iran's nuclear program was a focal point. Analysts note that Israel possesses various capabilities to target Iran's nuclear infrastructure if it chooses to proceed with such an operation.
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Similar markets
Moderate increase (5-10%) • 25%
Significant increase (>10%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decrease in prices • 25%
Moderate increase (10-20%) • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant increase (>20%) • 25%
Moderate increase (1-5%) • 25%
Decrease • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant increase (>5%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant decrease • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
Significant increase • 25%
Remain within 10% range • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase by more than 10% • 25%
Decrease by more than 10% • 25%
Limited strikes • 25%
Full-scale military intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
No military action • 25%
Strike occurs and is successful • 25%
Strike is postponed indefinitely • 25%
Strike is canceled • 25%
Strike occurs but is unsuccessful • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Retaliatory military action • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
