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What will be the outcome of Iranian-backed militias' involvement in northern Syria by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and statements from involved parties
Story
Iran-Backed Militias from Iraq Enter Syria to Aid Assad's Forces
Dec 2, 2024, 07:39 AM
Iranian-backed militias, including Iraq’s Kataib Hezbollah and Fatemiyoun groups, have entered Syria from Iraq overnight to reinforce Syrian government forces battling insurgents in the northern regions of the country. According to two Syrian military sources, dozens of Hashd al-Shaabi fighters crossed near Al Bukamal, with reinforcements heading to the northern frontlines. This move is seen as an effort to bolster the beleaguered Syrian army against ongoing rebel offensives.
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Other outcome • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Troop deployment • 25%
No involvement • 25%
Humanitarian aid only • 25%
Military advisors only • 25%
Troops remain • 25%
Troops increased • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Iran maintains current involvement • 25%
Iran mediates a peace agreement • 25%
Iran withdraws support from Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Provide missile and drone support • 25%
Increase advisors only • 25%
Deploy ground forces • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Full withdrawal • 25%
Increased Iranian influence • 25%
Decreased Iranian influence • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Granted asylum in Iraq • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
Rebel Gains • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Complete Rebel Defeat • 25%
Assad Overthrown • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%