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Will Iraqi forces or militias intervene in the Syrian conflict by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international news agencies or official Iraqi statements
Story
Muqtada al-Sadr Urges Iraqi Forces to Avoid Syrian Conflict, Emphasizes National Sovereignty and Punishment for Interference
Dec 5, 2024, 04:36 PM
Muqtada al-Sadr, a prominent Iraqi Shiite cleric, has reiterated his opposition to any Iraqi intervention in the ongoing conflict in Syria. He expressed hope that the 'defiant free Syrian people' could avoid the impacts of terrorism and extremism, while warning against schemes by the United States, Israel, and Britain. Al-Sadr urged the Iraqi government to prevent any Iraqi forces or militias from engaging in the Syrian conflict, emphasizing that it is up to the Syrian people to determine their own fate. He stated that any armed groups attempting to cross into Syria should be 'punished and prevented' by the Iraqi authorities. Al-Sadr's stance reflects his nationalist views and consistent criticism of Iranian influence in Iraq, particularly regarding Iranian-linked proxy forces aiding the Assad regime in Syria.
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Other outcome • 25%
Syrian army regains significant territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant territorial changes • 25%
Rebels gain more territory • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Decisive victory for Syrian government • 25%
Rebel forces gain ground • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Troops increased • 25%
Troops withdrawn • 25%
Troops remain • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Transferred to a third country • 25%
Returned to Syria • 25%
Other • 25%
Granted asylum in Iraq • 25%
Detain indefinitely • 25%
Transfer to a third country • 25%
Repatriate to Syria • 25%
Provide asylum • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Condemnation and sanctions • 25%
