Market
What will be the outcome of China's PMC deployment in Myanmar by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful stabilization • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Withdrawal without impact • 25%
Continued instability • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and international relations analysis
Story
China Weighs Military Intervention in Northern Myanmar to Safeguard BRI Projects
Dec 1, 2024, 08:38 AM
China is reportedly considering deploying private military contractors (PMCs) to Myanmar to protect its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. This move would be a significant risk for China, given the complex geopolitical situation in Myanmar, where the military junta is facing pressure from armed groups. The deployment would be in a 'private' capacity, maintaining the fiction of detachment from official military involvement. This decision comes amidst growing concerns over the security of Chinese investments in the region, with some observers speculating on potential military intervention by China in northern Myanmar.
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Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Escalation leading to military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution without military change • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal of forces • 25%
Continued military presence without escalation • 25%
Temporary ceasefire extension • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreement • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Continued military presence • 25%
De-escalation and withdrawal • 25%
Military conflict initiation • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
New agreement signed • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%