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Will a significant attack on Chinese BRI projects in Myanmar occur by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from credible news agencies detailing attacks on BRI projects in Myanmar
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China Weighs Military Intervention in Northern Myanmar to Safeguard BRI Projects
Dec 1, 2024, 08:38 AM
China is reportedly considering deploying private military contractors (PMCs) to Myanmar to protect its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects. This move would be a significant risk for China, given the complex geopolitical situation in Myanmar, where the military junta is facing pressure from armed groups. The deployment would be in a 'private' capacity, maintaining the fiction of detachment from official military involvement. This decision comes amidst growing concerns over the security of Chinese investments in the region, with some observers speculating on potential military intervention by China in northern Myanmar.
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Geopolitical tension with India • 25%
No major incident • 25%
Geopolitical tension with Bangladesh • 25%
Environmental protest • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
