Market
What will be the financial impact on TikTok creators and businesses if banned by January 19, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Revenue loss over $1 billion • 25%
Revenue loss under $1 billion • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or statements from TikTok
Story
Supreme Court Likely to Uphold TikTok Ban; App Could Go Dark January 19, Impacting 170 Million Users
Jan 10, 2025, 10:40 PM
The US Supreme Court is poised to decide on a law passed by bipartisan majorities in Congress and signed by President Joe Biden in April, which would require TikTok to either divest from its Chinese parent company ByteDance or face a nationwide ban by January 19, 2025. During oral arguments, the justices appeared skeptical of TikTok's argument that the ban violates the First Amendment rights of its 170 million American users, citing national security concerns about potential manipulation and data access by the Chinese government. TikTok's lawyers have asked the court to delay the ban, warning that the app could "go dark" on January 19 and that creators and small businesses in the US could lose $1.3 billion in revenue and earnings in one month if the ban goes through. Content creators, small businesses, and influencers across the country are bracing for the potential impact on their livelihoods, with many uncertain about where to turn if the platform is shut down.
View original story
Similar markets
No change • 25%
Decrease • 25%
Increase • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
Significant revenue loss • 25%
Revenue increases • 25%
Revenue remains stable • 25%
Minor revenue loss • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Increase in Instagram Users • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
Moderate decrease (25-50%) • 25%
Significant decrease (>50%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
TikTok divested • 34%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Other • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
Decrease in users • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Data not available • 25%
Increase in users • 25%
Ban is reversed by Trump • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ban is temporarily blocked by Supreme Court • 25%