Market
What will be the main financial impact on ByteDance due to TikTok ban by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant revenue loss • 25%
Minor revenue loss • 25%
Revenue remains stable • 25%
Revenue increases • 25%
Financial reports from ByteDance or major financial news outlets
Story
China Weighs Elon Musk, Xi's Approval for TikTok U.S. Sale Amid Ban
Jan 19, 2025, 03:59 AM
Chinese officials are reportedly considering a plan to allow Elon Musk to acquire TikTok's U.S. operations as a potential solution to prevent the app from being banned in the United States. The ban, which took effect following a U.S. Senate-passed law, requires TikTok's parent company ByteDance to sell its U.S. operations or face a complete prohibition. ByteDance, valued at $300 billion and founded in 2012, has challenged the legislation but was unsuccessful in overturning it. The ban has already removed TikTok from app stores in the U.S., cutting off access for approximately 170 million American users, which represent 11% of TikTok's global user base. The Chinese government sees Musk as a favorable option due to his perceived alignment with Chinese interests, and Xi Jinping's approval would be necessary for any sale. Musk has publicly opposed a TikTok ban, citing concerns over freedom of speech, but also pointed out the imbalance of TikTok being allowed in the U.S. while his platform, X, is banned in China. The ban is expected to significantly impact ByteDance's revenue, and discussions about Musk's potential acquisition remain ongoing. President Trump has suggested he might grant TikTok a 90-day extension to find a buyer.
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Revenue loss over $1 billion • 25%
Other • 25%
Minimal impact • 25%
Revenue loss under $1 billion • 25%
TikTok sold to U.S. company • 25%
TikTok remains banned • 25%
TikTok resumes without sale • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Users use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Users stop using TikTok • 25%
Other user behaviors • 25%
Significant user migration to competitors • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Significant negative impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Mixed impact • 25%
Uncertain • 25%
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No change • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Appeal the ban • 25%
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Sell TikTok US operations • 25%
Divestment from TikTok • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Complete withdrawal from U.S. market • 25%
Other • 25%
Snapchat • 25%
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Meta (Facebook) • 25%
YouTube • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Increase in YouTube Shorts Users • 25%
No Significant Shift • 25%
Increase in Snapchat Users • 25%
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Minor decrease (<25%) • 25%
No significant change • 25%
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No significant impact • 25%
Other impact • 25%
Revenue increase • 25%
Significant revenue loss • 25%