Market
What outcome will Turkey's influence on Hamas achieve in Gaza by June 30, 2025?
2
Antony Blinken•Turkish•Hakan Fidan•Tayyip Erdogan•Ankara•Syria•Blinken•Fidan•ISIS•US•Turkey•Hamas•Gaza
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Hamas leadership change • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Official announcements and reports from international news agencies
Story
Blinken and Turkey's Fidan Agree on Syria's Future, Urge Gaza Ceasefire
Dec 13, 2024, 10:02 AM
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara to discuss efforts to stabilize Syria and combat terrorism. Blinken and Fidan agreed on the importance of preventing the resurgence of ISIS and other terrorist groups in Syria, emphasizing the necessity to deny territory to ISIS. Blinken noted that the US and Turkey have a broad agreement on what they want to see in Syria's future. They also discussed their countries' potential roles in shaping Syria's future, emphasizing cooperation on ensuring Syria's stability, unity, and sovereignty. Additionally, Blinken urged Turkey to use its influence over Hamas to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, with both sides agreeing that a ceasefire should be reached as soon as possible.
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No change in governance • 25%
Hamas replaced by a new governing body • 25%
Hamas retains full control • 25%
Hamas agrees to power-sharing • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
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Partial agreement • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor incidents • 25%
Ceasefire is extended • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire breaks • 25%
Partial ceasefire • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No deal reached • 25%
Deal approved with terrorist release • 25%
Deal approved without terrorist release • 25%
Military Assistance • 25%
Humanitarian Aid • 25%
Infrastructure Development • 25%
Political Support • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%