Market
What will be the outcome of U.S. diplomatic efforts to pressure Hamas by July 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Increased hostilities • 25%
Official U.S. government statements, major news outlets
Story
Blinken: U.S. Pressure on Israel Caused Hamas to Withdraw from Ceasefire and Hostage Release Talks; Aid Threatened
Jan 5, 2025, 04:46 AM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has revealed in an interview with the New York Times that public pressure from the U.S. on Israel has led Hamas to withdraw from potential ceasefire and hostage release agreements. Blinken noted that whenever there was 'public daylight' between the U.S. and Israel, Hamas perceived this as an opportunity to pull back from negotiations. He also expressed frustration over the lack of international pressure on Hamas to surrender and release hostages since the October 7 attack, describing the situation as 'astounding.' Blinken further disclosed that he had to threaten to cancel a planned visit by President Joe Biden to Israel if the country did not allow humanitarian aid into Gaza, a move that was eventually agreed upon after intense discussions with Israeli leadership.
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Other outcome • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No significant progress • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Permanent ceasefire • 25%
No ceasefire • 25%
Temporary ceasefire • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Fully successful • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Extended or renegotiated • 25%
Partially successful • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Agreement reached • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hostages confirmed deceased • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage exchange deal finalized • 25%
Hostage release only • 25%
Neither • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire only • 25%