Market
What actions will TikTok users in the U.S. take in response to the ban by January 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Switch to alternative apps • 25%
Use VPNs to access TikTok • 25%
Stop using TikTok • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Surveys, social media analysis, and media reports
Story
TikTok to Shut Down U.S. App Sunday Unless Supreme Court Intervenes in Ban
Jan 15, 2025, 04:09 AM
TikTok is preparing to shut down its U.S. app on Sunday, January 19th, unless the Supreme Court intervenes to block the federal ban requiring the app to be sold to a non-Chinese entity. The popular video-sharing platform, owned by China-based ByteDance, faces a nationwide ban unless it complies with the law mandating divestiture by January 19th, 2025. TikTok's legal team has urged the Supreme Court to consider the broader implications of banning the app, warning that it could set a precedent for government overreach in content censorship. However, the Supreme Court appeared skeptical of TikTok's arguments that forcing it to divest or cease operations would violate free speech rights, leaving the app with few paths to survival. ByteDance has stated it will not sell TikTok. President-elect Donald J. Trump has requested to prevent the ban, but the Supreme Court has signaled it may deny the request. If the ban proceeds, TikTok users in the United States will lose access to the app, even if they have it already installed, and will be redirected to a website providing details about the ban.
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Similar markets
Majority migrate to alternative platforms • 25%
Majority continue using TikTok despite restrictions • 25%
Significant decline in user engagement • 25%
No significant change in user behavior • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Seek Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Minimal impact on user base • 25%
Protests or legal action by users • 25%
Significant migration to alternative platforms • 25%
Other significant reactions • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Other response • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased usage • 25%
Decreased usage • 25%
Organized protests • 25%
Other • 25%
Migration to other platforms • 25%
Protests or legal action • 25%
Decrease in social media usage • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
TikTok divested • 34%
TikTok banned • 33%
TikTok granted extension • 33%
Widespread opposition • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Widespread support • 25%
No major action • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Decrease by less than 25% • 25%
Decrease by over 50% • 25%
Decrease by 25-50% • 25%
No significant change • 25%