Market
What will be TikTok's response to the potential ban by January 19, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Divest from ByteDance • 25%
Challenge in court • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Official announcements or press releases from TikTok.
Story
Supreme Court Signals Likely Upholding of TikTok Ban on January 19 Over ByteDance Ties
Jan 10, 2025, 05:53 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court has signaled that it is likely to uphold a ban on TikTok, set to take effect on January 19, following more than two hours of oral arguments. The justices appeared skeptical of TikTok's arguments that the ban violates First Amendment rights, focusing instead on national security concerns related to the app's ties to China. The law, which requires TikTok to divest from its parent company ByteDance or face a ban, was approved by Congress in April. Justices from both sides of the political spectrum questioned the implications of the law on TikTok's operations and the potential for foreign control over the app, which is used by 170 million Americans. The Supreme Court's decision on whether to temporarily block the ban could come quickly, before the justices fully resolve underlying questions about speech protections.
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Negotiate with U.S. government • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Comply with the ban • 25%
Seek Supreme Court intervention • 25%
Alternative business strategy • 25%
Other response • 25%
Negotiation with US authorities • 25%
Legal action • 25%
Major migration to other platforms • 25%
Other response • 25%
Minimal impact, users adapt • 25%
Significant protests and public outcry • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Remains banned throughout 2025 • 25%
Wins legal challenge and resumes operations • 25%
Sells TikTok U.S. operations • 25%
Divestment from TikTok • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Other • 25%
Complete withdrawal from U.S. market • 25%
File new lawsuit • 25%
Comply with divestment • 25%
Negotiate settlement • 25%
No major action • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Legal challenge • 25%
Divestment from ByteDance • 25%
Other measures • 25%
Keep TikTok • 33%
Remove TikTok • 33%
No decision by deadline • 34%
Continues operations without compliance • 25%
Negotiates a delay or solution with U.S. government • 25%
Sells TikTok to a non-China-based company • 25%
Permanently shuts down TikTok in the U.S. • 25%
No noticeable backlash • 25%
Minimal backlash • 25%
Moderate backlash • 25%
Significant backlash • 25%
Other action • 25%
Seek diplomatic intervention • 25%
File another legal challenge • 25%
Cease U.S. operations permanently • 25%
Complete divestment from TikTok • 25%
Partial divestment or restructuring • 25%
Legal appeal and no divestment • 25%
Other actions • 25%