Market
How will U.S. policy towards Taiwan change under Trump by December 31, 2025?
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China•United States•Taiwan•Taiwanese•Donald Trump•Foreign Ministry•Lin Jian•Lin•Taiwan Straits•Lai•Hawaii•Guam•Trump
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
Official policy statements or legislation from the U.S. government
Story
China Warns U.S. Over Taiwan Support, Cites 'Red Line' Amid Lai-Johnson Call
Dec 6, 2024, 07:58 AM
China has issued a stern warning to the United States regarding its support for Taiwan, particularly following a call between Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian emphasized that the Taiwan question is a core issue in China-U.S. relations, describing it as a 'red line' that must not be crossed. Lin criticized the U.S. for what he described as 'using force to support Taiwan independence,' stating that such actions are fundamentally incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Straits. In response to President Lai's upcoming transit through Hawaii or Guam, China has stepped up military activities in the region, including likely war games around Taiwan. This move is seen as an attempt to set a 'red line' for the incoming Trump administration and U.S. allies. China has urged the U.S. to stop sending 'wrong signals' over Taiwan and to cease official exchanges with the island, which China considers part of its territory.
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Maintained current level of support • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Increase support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Shift to a neutral stance • 25%
Decrease support for Taiwan • 25%
Increased support • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Decreased support • 25%
Policy reversal • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Reduced military agreements • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Uncertain/Other • 25%