Market
What will be the outcome of the South Korean presidency by December 31, 2024, due to the current crisis?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
President Yoon remains • 25%
Interim president appointed • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcement from South Korean government or major news outlets
Story
South Korean Parliament Urges Arrest of President Yoon Over Treason and Martial Law Attempt
Dec 10, 2024, 06:38 AM
South Korea's parliament has passed a resolution urging the immediate arrest of President Yoon Suk-yeol, following allegations of treason and a failed attempt to declare martial law. The National Office of Investigation has banned five key police and military officials, including the police chief, from leaving the country as part of the ongoing investigation. Additionally, a bill was passed to appoint a special counsel to probe President Yoon's actions, signaling a significant political crisis in the country. President Yoon and seven others have been added to the arrest list.
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Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Other • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol Reinstated • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Escalation to further conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Governmental changes • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Early Elections Held • 25%
New Interim Leader Appointed • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Acting President Stays • 25%
Government change • 25%
Other • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
New candidate from Yoon's party • 25%
Choi Sang-mok • 25%
Other • 25%
Candidate from opposition party • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%