Market
Impact on Russia-Ukraine relations by June 30, 2025?
2
Russia•Federal Security Service•FSB•Ukrainian•Russian•Moscow•Russians•Russian Defense Ministry•Ukraine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Official statements from Russian and Ukrainian governments, and analysis from international relations experts
Story
Russia's FSB Thwarts Alleged Ukrainian Plot to Assassinate High-Ranking Military Officer and Pro-Russian Blogger with Homemade Bomb
Dec 28, 2024, 05:57 AM
Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) has thwarted an alleged Ukrainian plot to assassinate a high-ranking Russian military officer and a pro-Russian war blogger. The FSB detained a Russian citizen who was reportedly working under the supervision of a Ukrainian intelligence officer. The suspect had retrieved a homemade explosive device, disguised as a portable music speaker and containing the equivalent of 1.5 kilograms of TNT, from a hideout in the Moscow region. The FSB stated that the detained individual had conducted reconnaissance at the residences of the intended targets, planning to plant the bomb under the car or at the gate of the blogger's house, and to find and mine the car of the military officer. The operation follows the recent arrest of four other Russians accused of plotting attacks on senior Russian Defense Ministry officials and their families, also allegedly on Ukraine's orders.
View original story
Similar markets
Improvement • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Peace treaty signed • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations result in partial agreements • 25%
No negotiations occur • 25%
Negotiations result in comprehensive agreements • 25%
Negotiations occur with no agreements • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Escalation • 25%
No Talks • 25%
Significant Progress • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
More conciliatory • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains unchanged • 25%
More oppositional • 25%