Market
What will be the outcome of Ukraine-Russia peace negotiations by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Ukraine, Russia, or international mediators
Story
Biden to Announce New Economic Sanctions Against Russia and $500 Million Aid to Ukraine Before Trump's January 20, 2025 Inauguration
Jan 9, 2025, 01:12 PM
President Joe Biden is set to announce new economic sanctions against Russia this week, according to a U.S. official. The move is part of efforts to bolster Ukraine's war effort against Moscow before Donald Trump assumes office on January 20, 2025. The sanctions aim to strengthen Ukraine's position on the battlefield ahead of potential peace negotiations with Russia. Details on the specific sanctions have not been disclosed, but Biden's administration is also preparing to allocate $500 million in additional military aid to Ukraine, which will include air defense missiles, air-to-ground munitions, and support equipment for F-16 jets. Trump's return to the White House has raised hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, but also fears in Kyiv of a quick peace that might come at a high cost. Biden's aides are informing Trump's team about the measures being taken.
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Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full Peace Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Only • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Full Peace Agreement • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains neutral, no NATO membership • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Peace agreement reached • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
No progress in negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire without agreement • 25%
Territorial concessions by Ukraine • 25%
Mutual concessions • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Territorial concessions by Russia • 25%
Escalation in conflict • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Comprehensive peace agreement • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%