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How will protest votes affect Trump's campaign strategy in 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant changes in campaign strategy • 33%
Moderate changes in campaign strategy • 33%
No change in campaign strategy • 33%
Analysis from political analysts and campaign strategy updates
Story
Trump Wins Indiana GOP Primary; Haley Garners 20% in Protest Vote
May 8, 2024, 01:43 AM
Donald Trump won the Republican presidential primary in Indiana, securing a victory despite significant protest votes within his own party. Nikki Haley, who had withdrawn from the race two months earlier, surprisingly garnered over 20% of the vote, indicating a notable level of dissent against Trump among GOP voters. This phenomenon of protest voting against Trump, who had won Indiana by 17 points in 2020, was observed not only in Indiana but also in other states, reflecting a broader discontent within the party.
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Similar markets
Drop out of race • 25%
Continue campaign with reduced support • 25%
Continue campaign with same support • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Significant drop in poll numbers • 25%
No significant change in poll numbers • 25%
Increase in campaign donations • 25%
Decrease in campaign donations • 25%
Increased use of Capitol steps in campaigns • 50%
No significant change • 50%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No change in strategy • 33%
Moderate adjustments in strategy • 33%
Major overhaul in strategy • 33%
Wins GOP nomination • 33%
Withdraws from race • 33%
Loses GOP nomination • 34%
No impact • 33%
Minor impact • 33%
Major impact • 34%
Increase in Support • 33%
Decrease in Support • 33%
No Change in Support • 34%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Positive impact • 33%
Drops Out of Race • 25%
Loses Nomination • 25%
Wins Nomination • 25%
Other • 25%
Significantly positive impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Negligible impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%