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How will the GOP protest vote distribute in the next three primaries?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
No candidate over 10% • 33%
One candidate over 10% • 33%
Multiple candidates over 10% • 33%
Certified primary election results from respective states
Story
Trump Wins Indiana GOP Primary; Haley Garners 20% in Protest Vote
May 8, 2024, 01:43 AM
Donald Trump won the Republican presidential primary in Indiana, securing a victory despite significant protest votes within his own party. Nikki Haley, who had withdrawn from the race two months earlier, surprisingly garnered over 20% of the vote, indicating a notable level of dissent against Trump among GOP voters. This phenomenon of protest voting against Trump, who had won Indiana by 17 points in 2020, was observed not only in Indiana but also in other states, reflecting a broader discontent within the party.
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Trump gains 80% or more of delegates • 33%
Trump gains 50% to 79% of delegates • 33%
Trump gains less than 50% of delegates • 34%
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Trump wins with over 75% • 25%
Trump wins with 50-75% • 25%
Haley wins • 25%
Other candidate wins • 25%
Significant lead (10%+) • 33%
Moderate lead (5-10%) • 33%
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0-2 states • 25%
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