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What will be the impact on Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Drop out of race • 25%
Continue campaign with reduced support • 25%
Continue campaign with same support • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Election results, news reports
Story
Donald Trump Found Guilty on All 34 Felony Counts in NYC Hush Money Trial
May 30, 2024, 09:08 PM
Former President Donald Trump has been found guilty on all 34 felony counts in his New York City hush money trial. The charges include falsifying business records related to a 2016 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels. The NYC jury reached its verdict after deliberating for about a day. This conviction marks a significant legal setback for Trump, who is now officially a convicted felon.
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Similar markets
Significant drop in poll numbers • 25%
No significant change in poll numbers • 25%
Increase in campaign donations • 25%
Decrease in campaign donations • 25%
Wins GOP nomination • 33%
Withdraws from race • 33%
Loses GOP nomination • 34%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Positive impact • 33%
No impact • 33%
Minor impact • 33%
Major impact • 34%
Drops Out of Race • 25%
Loses Nomination • 25%
Wins Nomination • 25%
Other • 25%
Trump wins Republican nomination • 25%
Trump runs as independent • 25%
Trump does not run • 25%
Trump loses nomination but supports another candidate • 25%
Increase in Support • 33%
Decrease in Support • 33%
No Change in Support • 34%
Significantly positive impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
Negligible impact • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Significantly Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Significantly Negative Impact • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Runs for office again • 33%
Retires from politics • 33%
Forms a new political movement • 34%
Positive Impact • 33%
No Impact • 33%
Negative Impact • 34%