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Will there be a shift in regional alliances due to the capture of Hezbollah commander by May 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Israel • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other shifts • 25%
Reports from international relations think tanks or major news outlets
Story
IDF's Golani Brigade Captures Hezbollah Commander and Radwan Force Members in Southern Lebanon
Oct 29, 2024, 05:59 PM
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have announced the capture of Hezbollah commander Hassan Aqil Jawad in southern Lebanon's Ayta ash-Shab. The operation, carried out by the Golani Brigade, took place approximately two weeks ago. Acting on prior intelligence, the troops located Jawad and other operatives in a Hezbollah command tunnel. In addition to Jawad, several members of Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force were also captured during the operation. This capture is considered a significant operational achievement for the IDF.
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No change • 25%
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Disbandment • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
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