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Will there be a change in Hezbollah's leadership by April 2025 due to the conflict?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear information • 25%
Announcements from Hezbollah or credible news sources
Story
Israel Expands Operations in Southern Lebanon, Deploys 91st "Galilee" Division Against Hezbollah
Oct 7, 2024, 06:00 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are expanding their ground operations in southern Lebanon by deploying a third division, the 91st "Galilee" Division. This follows the deployment of two divisions already operating in the area, including the 36th Division, which includes the Etzioni Brigade—the first reserve brigade to enter Lebanon during the ongoing war. The IDF released a video of soldiers from the Etzioni Brigade operating in southern Lebanon. The military aims to launch precise operations against Hezbollah terrorists responsible for attacks on Israeli civilians. The expansion indicates an intensification of the conflict along the border and inside Lebanese territory.
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Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced • 25%
New leadership structure emerges • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Hezbollah leader steps down • 25%
Hezbollah leader is replaced • 25%
Hezbollah leadership undergoes restructuring • 25%
Naim Qassem remains in power • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership council formed • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New leader announced • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership dispute or conflict • 25%
Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
Interim Leadership • 25%
Yes, internal restructuring • 33%
Yes, new leader appointed • 33%
No significant changes • 33%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader from within Hezbollah • 25%
New leader backed by Iran • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear outcome • 25%