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Will there be a change in Hezbollah leadership due to the recent conflict by the end of 2024?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Hezbollah•Lebanon•Nabatieh•Radwan Force•Israel•Division 91•Israeli Navy•Radwan Forces
Resolution / Starting Odds
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
Announcements from Hezbollah or reports from major news outlets
Story
IDF Uncovers 800m Hezbollah Tunnel for Israel Invasion; Strikes Radwan Force Sites in Lebanon
Oct 16, 2024, 04:48 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have uncovered an expansive underground Hezbollah compound in southern Lebanon, specifically in the heart of a civilian neighborhood in the Nabatieh area. The compound, stretching approximately 800 meters, served as a command center for Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force and was equipped with weapons, ammunition, motorcycles, helicopter-fired missiles, mortar shells, and living quarters. The facility included means for long-term stays, such as kitchens stocked with food and supplies, and was intended for use in an invasion into northern Israel, potentially involving a massacre larger than the one on October 7. The IDF's Division 91 was involved in the operation, which also included strikes on Hezbollah's underground infrastructure in southern Lebanon. The Israeli Navy also conducted strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure, targeting dozens of Hezbollah terror targets in the Nabatieh area and dismantling underground infrastructure used by the Radwan Forces.
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Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
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Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
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Hezbollah leadership undergoes restructuring • 25%
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Naim Qassem remains in power • 25%
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Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
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Current leadership remains • 25%
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Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
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New leader backed by Iran • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
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