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Will there be a change in leadership of Hezbollah or Israeli intelligence agencies by end of 2024?
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Hezbollah•Israeli•Israel•Glilot•Tel Aviv•Lebanese•Mossad•Israeli Intelligence Corps•Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Change in Mossad leadership • 25%
Change in Unit 8200 leadership • 25%
No change • 25%
Official announcements from Hezbollah or Israeli government sources
Story
Hezbollah's Nasrallah Targets Glilot Base in Failed Israeli Missile Attack
Aug 25, 2024, 03:27 PM
Hezbollah attempted a missile attack targeting key Israeli intelligence facilities in central Israel, specifically aiming at the Glilot base near Tel Aviv, approximately 110 kilometers from the Lebanese border. This base houses the headquarters of Mossad and the Israeli Intelligence Corps' Unit 8200. The attack, which occurred on Sunday morning, was reportedly thwarted, with no civilian areas targeted, according to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, who stated, "The desired target was the Israeli military intelligence base." Israeli officials confirmed the intended targets and emphasized the significance of the intelligence sites involved.
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Change in Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Change in IDF leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Yes, internal restructuring • 33%
Yes, new leader appointed • 33%
No significant changes • 33%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
Naim Qassem remains in power • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership council formed • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear outcome • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
New leader announced • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership dispute or conflict • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership change within Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Hezbollah leader steps down • 25%
Hezbollah leader is replaced • 25%
Hezbollah leadership undergoes restructuring • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced • 25%
New leadership structure emerges • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%