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Will there be a change in leadership within Hezbollah following the Israeli military response by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Official statements from Hezbollah, major news outlets
Story
Israel Prepares Response After Hezbollah Rocket Kills 12, Including Children, at Soccer Pitch in Golan Heights
Jul 28, 2024, 07:57 AM
The Israeli military is preparing a response against Hezbollah after a rocket fired from Lebanon killed 12 people, including children and young adults, at a soccer pitch in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. Israeli aircraft carried out attacks against Hezbollah in Lebanon overnight following the incident. Israel's foreign ministry stated that Hezbollah had 'crossed all red lines' with the rocket strike. The Israeli military has vowed to strike hard against Hezbollah, accusing the Iran-backed group of the deadly attack.
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No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear outcome • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership change within Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
Interim Leadership • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced • 25%
New leadership structure emerges • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed from within Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah leadership structure changes significantly • 25%
Hezbollah dissolves or merges with another group • 25%
Ali Karaki promoted • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Change in Hezbollah leadership • 25%
Change in IDF leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%