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Will there be a change in leadership within Hezbollah as a result of the Israeli military operation by June 30, 2025?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Hezbollah•Lebanon•National Security Council•Iran•Israeli Channel 13•Israeli army•Gaza•US•Israel
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear outcome • 25%
Official announcements from Hezbollah or credible news sources
Story
Netanyahu Announces Wide-Scale Military Operation Against Hezbollah in Northern Lebanon
Sep 14, 2024, 05:50 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced a wide-scale military operation against Hezbollah in northern Lebanon. This decision follows a series of meetings with the National Security Council and comes amid escalating tensions with Hezbollah and other Iran-backed proxies. Israeli Channel 13 reports that the Israeli army plans a gradual escalation on the northern front, which may necessitate reducing the military presence in Gaza. Officials indicate that the operation could begin within weeks or a few months, contingent on securing international support and ensuring sufficient munitions and forces are in place. A US official has noted that Israel is bracing for an all-out war.
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No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership remains unclear • 25%
Hezbollah leadership disbanded • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced • 25%
New leadership structure emerges • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership change within Hezbollah • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Other • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
Interim Leadership • 25%
Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
New leader announced • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership dispute or conflict • 25%
Yes, internal restructuring • 33%
Yes, new leader appointed • 33%
No significant changes • 33%