Loading...
Market
Will there be a leadership change in Hezbollah as a result of the conflict by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hassan Nasrallah remains in power • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced • 25%
New leadership structure emerges • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Official announcements from Hezbollah or major news agencies like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
Israel Begins Imminent Limited Ground Incursion into Lebanon, Targets Hezbollah
Sep 30, 2024, 04:35 PM
The United States has indicated that Israel is preparing for and has begun a limited ground incursion into southern Lebanon. This operation targets Hezbollah positions along the border and aims to clear out militant infrastructure. U.S. officials have confirmed that Israeli forces have already crossed into southern Lebanon and initiated small-scale operations. The objective of these operations is to mitigate the threat posed by Hezbollah to Israeli border communities. Despite the limited scope of the current operations, there is concern about potential escalation. The U.S. has advised Israel against a broader invasion, but Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has stated that the next stage of the war against Hezbollah will begin soon. Special forces are involved in these operations, and U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has confirmed the ongoing limited operations. The incursion is described as imminent.
View original story
Similar markets
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Hezbollah leader steps down • 25%
Hezbollah leader is replaced • 25%
Hezbollah leadership undergoes restructuring • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
No change reported • 25%
Yes, internal restructuring • 33%
Yes, new leader appointed • 33%
No significant changes • 33%
Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
New leader announced • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership dispute or conflict • 25%
Naim Qassem remains in power • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership council formed • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah steps down • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is replaced by internal coup • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah is killed or incapacitated • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear information • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Current leader remains • 25%
New leader from within Hezbollah • 25%
New leader backed by Iran • 25%
Leadership structure changes • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
No clear outcome • 25%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%