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Will Lai Ching-te engage in formal dialogue with China within 6 months?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from Taiwan or China's government
Story
Lai Ching-te Sworn in as Taiwan's President Amid Rising China Tensions, Geopolitical Rivalry
May 20, 2024, 04:30 AM
Lai Ching-te has been sworn in as the new president of Taiwan, succeeding Tsai Ing-wen. Lai, who previously served as Vice President, won the presidential election in January and is now leading Taiwan amid rising tensions with China. In his inaugural address, Lai called on China to cease its military and political intimidation of Taiwan, emphasizing the need for peace and dialogue. He also highlighted Taiwan's commitment to democracy and economic prosperity. The inauguration comes as China has increased its military activities near Taiwan, signaling a challenging geopolitical landscape. Lai's administration inherits a strong foreign policy position but faces political gridlock at home. On the eve of his inauguration, Lai participated in shrimp fishing, symbolizing his efforts to court diplomatic allies. He also reaffirmed the sovereignty of the Republic of China, stressing its independence.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Accepted • 33%
Rejected • 33%
No Response • 34%
Diplomatic retaliation • 50%
No significant action • 50%
Increase in high-level meetings • 25%
Formal talks at an international summit • 25%
Implementation of new communication channels • 25%
No significant increase in diplomatic engagements • 25%
Direct talks between China and Taiwan • 25%
Mediated talks through another country or organization • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Informal backchannel talks • 25%
