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Will China issue a formal protest to Taiwan over the arrest by August 31, 2024?

4

Taiwan•Chinese•Taipei•Taiwanese

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official statements from Chinese and Taiwanese government websites

Story

Taiwan Arrests Ex-Chinese Navy Captain for Illegal Entry on June 10

Jun 11, 2024, 07:43 AM

On June 10, Taiwanese authorities arrested a former Chinese navy captain who illegally entered Taipei harbor on a speedboat. Senior Taiwanese officials suspect the individual may have been probing the island's defenses. The incident has prompted Taiwan to increase its security measures. The man claims political persecution, but authorities are investigating the validity of these claims.

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Will Taiwan formally charge the former Chinese navy captain by August 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will Taiwan issue a formal diplomatic protest against China's 2024 military drills?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Next major diplomatic action by China on Taiwan by June 30, 2024?

Military drill • 33%

Economic sanctions • 33%

Diplomatic protest • 34%

What will be China's response to Taiwan's repatriation request by September 30, 2024?

Grant repatriation • 33%

Deny repatriation • 33%

No official response • 34%

Taiwan-China formal talks by end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will Taiwan repatriate the former Chinese navy captain by July 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will Taiwan lodge a formal complaint to WTO against China by Dec 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Taiwan issues diplomatic protest over Chinese incursion by June 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

China initiates military action against Taiwan by end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

China imposes economic sanctions on Taiwan by Dec 31, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will China impose new trade sanctions on Taiwan by the end of 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Will Taiwan conduct its own military drills in response by August 30, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

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Will ex-Chinese navy captain be found guilty of espionage in Taiwan?

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Will Taiwan increase military patrols by September 30, 2024?

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

What will be Taiwan's primary response to the incident by October 31, 2024?

Strengthened harbor defenses • 25%

No significant action • 25%

Diplomatic measures • 25%

Increased military patrols • 25%

What will be the outcome of the ex-Chinese navy captain's trial in Taiwan?

Guilty of espionage • 33%

Not guilty • 33%

Guilty of illegal entry only • 33%