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Will Lai Ching-te extend a formal invitation for peace talks to China within his first year?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the Office of the President of Taiwan or Chinese government
Story
Lai Ching-te Inaugurated as Taiwan's New President Amid Tensions with China, Third Consecutive Term
May 20, 2024, 01:06 AM
Lai Ching-te has been inaugurated as Taiwan's new president, succeeding Tsai Ing-wen. Lai, the son of a coal miner, has risen from humble beginnings to the highest office in Taiwan. His inauguration ceremony took place in Taipei, attended by various foreign leaders and dignitaries. In his upcoming inauguration speech, Lai is expected to express goodwill towards China and call for peace across the Taiwan Strait. His presidency comes at a time of heightened tensions with China, which views him as a separatist. Lai also faces challenges from a fractious parliament and an opposition eager to challenge his administration. His leadership is likely to bolster Taiwan's ties with the United States. This marks an unprecedented third consecutive presidential term for the Democratic Progressive Party.
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Direct talks between China and Taiwan • 25%
Mediated talks through another country or organization • 25%
No talks initiated • 25%
Informal backchannel talks • 25%
Increase in high-level meetings • 25%
Formal talks at an international summit • 25%
Implementation of new communication channels • 25%
No significant increase in diplomatic engagements • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased support • 50%
No change in support • 50%
